For the unsolved who blah blah blah before thinking, Tinubu lost the game in APC or was started by Buhari. But this assumption is completely wrong. Rather, looking at the composition of the Interim government of the APC, Tinubu still emerged victorious.
The first time the long knife was applied as a political weapon was at the German putsch organised by Hitler. Like PDP, the APC was made up of five tendencies who agreed to merge.These are the ACTION CONGRESS OF NIGERIA which was the senior Party led by Asiwaju Tinubu with seven states under its control made up of Lagos, Oyo , Osun , Edo, Ogun, Ekiti, Ondo and minority leadership of both the Senate and the House of Representatives. It also had house of assembly members in Benue, Imo, Anambra.
The second party was Buhari CPC. It had Nasarawa.There was a faction of APGA led by Okorocha that joined. Then six governors of PDP and some of its Senators like Bukola Saraki who were disgruntled decided to move to the merger, but only six finally moved. Of these 6, only one was from the South and that was Amaechi Rotimi. The remaing 5 are from the North.They called themselves new PDP. The last but not the least was APP that had two states of Borno and Yobe under its kitty.
These are the five tendencies fighting for turf in APC today. How have these five tendencies fared since the formation of APC. With the replacement of Okorocha with Uzodima, the faction of APGA have been neutralised. With Buhari winning the second term, APP and CPC expanded their influence in the North, when you look at Buhari appointments which favoured the North East and the North Central.
The ACN tendency retained its influence in the Southwest and Edo. In the sharing of positions in 2015, the new PDP was left out. They therefore hijacked the legislature with Dogara and Saraki and tried to destroy both the party and the government. This faction led by Saraki later returned to PDP while the faction led by Amaechi remained in APC. It is this faction of Amaechi that is fighting for space or survival in APC. Unfortunately, having been routed at home and decimated in the Southsouth , Amaechi is like Guaido of Venezuela, a President without a Country.
The question is- What is Amaechi’s next move?The Tinubu ACN have always controlled the Party levers. At the inception of APC, ACN produced the Interim Chairman.
On its registration and convention, ACN supplied Oyegun until he turned coat and was replaced by Oshiomole who was an ACN governor. In 2011 to 2015 ACN of Tinubu produced the minority leaders of the two Houses in the person of George Akume of Benue State as Senate minority Leader and Gbajabiamila as the house minority Leader. In 2015 because of what Saraki and Dogara did, ACN produced the leader of the senate in the person of Lawan while Gbajabiamila became majority leader of the house. In 2019 the same Lawan and Gbajabiamila of ACN became the senate president and the speaker respectively. Apart from that, there had been a long relationship between the TIVS of Middle Belt, through J.S TARKA; the Kanuris of BORNO (NOW YOBE AND BORNO) and the Yorubas. The three areas with Sule Maito of Ilorin and Olawoyin of Offa played progressive politics What many people failed to take note of, was that immediately after the visit of Bagudu to Buhari on APC crisis, the next person was Lawal, the senate president on the same APC crisis. Who then won and who lost?
On Edo, ACN won. The primary election of Ize Iyamu who was the first Chairman of ACN in Edo state was upheld. The anti Oshiomole group led by the rump of PDP supported by careerists like Kayode Fayemi lost.
Let us now look at the composition of the interim management of APC. The Chairman currently Governor of Borno is of APP. The Secretary Udoehde of Akwa Ibom is of ACN. The Governor of Osun is of ACN. Okotete representing the women and of Omo Agege is of ACN.
David Lyon who is of Silva stable and backer of Godwin Abbe of Rivers and implacably opposed to Amaechi is in the same group with Tinubu.
The House of Representatives member on the Committee is ACN. I do not know the colour of the northern members and therefore will not comment.
While Tinubu won, the loser in the whole game is the Amaechi group led by Atiku Bagudu of Kebbi, Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti and El Rufai of Kaduna. While ElRufai may not leave APC, Fayemi will leave along with Amaechi, Bagudu and a host of others.
However, Kayode action will be self destructive. He should learn from Jakande. As to Edo, Ize Iyamu will win.
At the 2016 governorship election, Obaseki of APC could only defeat Ole Iyamu of PDP with 50,000 votes even with the support of Oshiomole as the sitting governor.
In 2019, Obaseki and Oyegun lost in their wards to PDP. Buhari lost in Edo state to Atiku, lost two senatorial seats to PDP even with Obaseki as sitting governor. So how much asset is OBASEKI bringing from APC to PDP.
Most of the APC members with the exception of Shuaibu and Adjoto did not defect with him. The nine House of Assembly members did not defect with him. The dissolution of APC NWC was the best decision BUHARI took. If there is going to be any damage, the future impact will be minimal.
I congratulate President Buhari on this bold decision. As for Tinubu the future is radiant and I congratulate him. I commiserate with Ameachi and Fayemi, the sewage rats of FFK and Reno Omokri,and other hack rats on their losses.
P.S. In writing this article i contacted a columnist of a major Nigerian newspaper, a leader each of the Yoruba two cultural/ political groups, a senior member of APC in the West for their comments and observations. One responded and his comment is reflected above .